The end of financial year will soon be upon us. But once you get past…
Pandemic concerns reappear…
- Global shares fell -3.2% and -1.1% in hedged and unhedged terms, respectively. Global equities were led on the downside by both US and European equities with the German market down over -9.4%.
- Emerging markets rose 4.2% during September in Australian Dollar (AUD) terms with the Chinese market performing strongly whilst other developing economies such as India continue to see slowing coronavirus case growth.
- Australian shares outperformed global shares rising 1.9% in October. The market was led by strength from the banking (Financials up 6.3%) and tech sectors (up 8.96%).
- The Australian dollar (AUD) acted as a buffer falling -2% against major currencies and -1.9% against the US dollar.
- Fixed income returns were positive domestically but flat internationally. Speculation over another RBA rate cut, and additional quantitative easing was an important support. Rising US bond yields following a strong GDP result drove the flat outcome for global bonds even as corporate bonds had positive returns.
As cases escalated in Europe
- The continued pace of cases in Europe accelerated further and triggered new lockdown restrictions across France, Germany and other major countries. This raised the risk of another quarter of negative growth in Europe.
- US case growth also accelerated prompting renewed calls for further government stimulus.
- President Trump appears to have been defeated in the 2020 US Presidential election by Democrat nominee Joe Biden.
- The Federal Budget for FY21 was well received with consumer confidence bouncing strongly on the back of tax cuts being brought forward.
- The RBA cut interest rates by 0.15% to a new low of 0.1% and announced further extension of its bond purchasing program intended to drive long-term borrowing costs lower and help reduce the attractiveness of our currency (by reducing the difference between our bond yields and other countries).
- It appears that the September quarter this year was the end of the Australian recession with positive growth likely to be recorded as the relaxation of lockdowns across the country saw consumer spending recover (on a volume basis) while government stimulus in JobKeeper and JobSeeker remained supportive though tapering began in October).
Major asset class performance
|Asset classes||1 month %||1 year %||5 years (p.a.) %|
|Global shares (hedged)||-3.2%||1.1%||8.0%|
|Global shares (unhedged)||-1.1%||2.7%||8.5%|
|Global small companies (unhedged)||2.1%||-1.9%||7.1%|
|Global emerging markets (unhedged)||4.2%||6.2%||8.3%|
|Global listed property (hedged)
|Australian fixed income||0.3%||4.0%||4.5%|
|International fixed income||0.0%||3.8%||4.4%|
|Source: Bloomberg & IOOF, 31 October 2020
Indices used: Australian Shares: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, Global shares (hedged): MSCI World ex Australia Net Total Return (in AUD), Global shares (unhedged): MSCI World ex Australia Hedged AUD Net Total Return Index; Global small companies (unhedged): MSCI World Small Cap Net Total Return USD Index (in AUD); Global emerging markets (unhedged): MSCI Emerging Markets EM Net Total Return AUD Index; Global listed property (hedged): FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index Hedged in AUD Net Total Return; Cash: Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index; Australian fixed income: Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Yr Index; International fixed income: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged AUD
Please note: Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
|Exchange rates||At close on 31/10||1 month change %||1 year change %|
|Trade weighted index||59.5||-2.0%||-0.8%|
|Source: Bloomberg & IOOF, 31 October 2020. All foreign exchange rates are rounded to two decimal places where appropriate.
Please note: Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by the IOOF Research team for RI Advice Group Pty Ltd ABN 23 001 774 125 AFSL 238429. RI Advice Group Pty Ltd is a company within the IOOF group of companies consisting of IOOF Holdings Limited ABN 49 100 103 722 and its related bodies corporate. This report is current as at the date of issue but may be superseded by future publications. The information in the report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose without the prior written consent of RI Advice Group Pty Ltd. This report may be used on the express condition that you have obtained a copy of the RI Advice Group Pty Ltd Financial Services Guide (FSG) from the website. RI Advice Group Pty Ltd and/or its associated entities, directors and/or its employees may have a material interest in, and may earn brokerage from, any securities or other financial products referred to in this report, or may provide services to the companies referred to in this report. This report is not available for distribution outside Australia and may not be passed on to any third person without the prior written consent of RI Advice Group Pty. RI Advice Group Pty and associated persons (including persons from whom information in this report is sourced) may do business or seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firms or other such persons may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as a single factor in making an investment decision. This report has been prepared in good faith and with reasonable care. Neither RI Advice Group Pty nor any other person makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, reasonableness or completeness of the contents of this document (including any projections, forecasts, estimates, prospects and returns and any omissions from this document). To the maximum extent permitted by law RI Advice Group Pty, its related bodies corporate and their respective officers, employees, representatives and associates disclaim and exclude all liability for any loss or damage (whether foreseeable or not foreseeable) suffered or incurred by any person acting on any information (including any projections, forecasts, estimates, prospects and returns) provided in, or omitted from this report. General Advice Disclaimer: The information in this report is general advice only and does not take into account your financial circumstances, needs and objectives. Before making any decision based on this report, you should assess your own circumstances or seek advice from a financial adviser. Where applicable, you should obtain and consider a copy of the Product Disclosure Statement, prospectus or other disclosure material relevant to the financial product before you acquire a financial product. It is important to note that investments may go up and down and past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
For information regarding any potential conflicts of interest and analyst holdings; IOOF Research Team’s coverage criteria, methodology and spread of ratings; and summary information about the qualifications and experience of the IOOF Research Team please visit https://www.ioof.com.au/adviser/investment_funds/ioof_advice_research_process.