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Market Wrap – July 2020

The recovery rally marches on

  • The improvement in leading indicators however suggest the pace of the contraction is slowing and growth is beginning to improve particularly as countries exit lockdown measures.
  • Policy support continues to underpin the recovery with ongoing bond purchases by central banks keeping borrowing costs low.
  • However, the US implemented sanctions targeting Chinese officials after stronger national security laws were implemented in Hong Kong. This raises geopolitical risks.
  • In addition, we have seen coronavirus cases continue to grow globally with new highs reached in US case growth.The improvement in leading indicators however suggest the pace of the contraction is slowing and growth is beginning to improve particularly as countries exit lockdown measures.

But with troubles on the horizon…

Globally

  • The improvement in leading indicators however suggest the pace of the contraction is slowing and growth is beginning to improve particularly as countries exit lockdown measures.
  • Policy support continues to underpin the recovery with ongoing bond purchases by central banks keeping borrowing costs low.
  • However, the US implemented sanctions targeting Chinese officials after stronger national security laws were implemented in Hong Kong. This raises geopolitical risks.
  • In addition, we have seen coronavirus cases continue to grow globally with new highs reached in US case growth.
  • While mortality rates have fallen the concern is still the impact this will have on healthcare systems and whether further lockdowns will be required.

Locally

  • The RBA continued to leave rates on hold in line with its guidance and expectations.
  • From mid-June we have seen quarantine failures drive a sharp rise in Victorian cases that prompted the lockdown of the Melbourne metropolitan area in early July
  • This will likely force the case for further government stimulus and may undermine the economic recovery in the short term.

Major asset class performance

Asset classes 1 month % 1 year % 5 years (p.a.) %
Australian shares 2.6% -7.7% 6.0%
Global shares (hedged to AUD) 2.3% 1.3% 7.3%
Global shares (unhedged) -1.1% 5.2% 9.4%
Global small companies (unhedged) -1.1% -3.5% 6.6%
Global emerging markets (unhedged) 3.5% -1.5% 5.1%
Global listed property (hedged to AUD)
2.2% -17.6% 1.6%
Cash 0.0% 0.8% 1.7%
Australian fixed income 0.3% 4.2% 4.8%
International fixed income 0.5% 5.2% 4.8%
Source: Bloomberg & IOOF, 30 June 2020
Indices used: Australian Shares: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, Global shares (hedged): MSCI World ex Australia Net Total Return (in AUD), Global shares (unhedged): MSCI World ex Australia Hedged AUD Net Total Return Index; Global small companies (unhedged): MSCI World Small Cap Net Total Return USD Index (in AUD); Global emerging markets (unhedged): MSCI Emerging Markets EM Net Total Return AUD Index; Global listed property (hedged): FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index Hedged in AUD Net Total Return; Cash: Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index; Australian fixed income: Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Yr Index; International fixed income: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged AUD
Please note: Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Currency markets

Exchange rates At close on 30/6 1 month change % 1 year change %
USD/AUD 0.69 3.5% -1.7%
Euro/AUD 0.61 2.3% -0.4%
Yen/AUD 74.5 3.6% -1.6%
Trade weighted index 60.0 2.0% -0.2%
Source: Bloomberg & IOOF, 30 June 2020. All foreign exchange rates are rounded to two decimal places where appropriate.
Please note: Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by the IOOF Research team for RI Advice Group Pty Ltd ABN 23 001 774 125 AFSL 238429. RI Advice Group Pty Ltd is a company within the IOOF group of companies consisting of IOOF Holdings Limited ABN 49 100 103 722 and its related bodies corporate. This report is current as at the date of issue but may be superseded by future publications. The information in the report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose without the prior written consent of RI Advice Group Pty Ltd. This report may be used on the express condition that you have obtained a copy of the RI Advice Group Pty Ltd Financial Services Guide (FSG) from the website. RI Advice Group Pty Ltd and/or its associated entities, directors and/or its employees may have a material interest in, and may earn brokerage from, any securities or other financial products referred to in this report, or may provide services to the companies referred to in this report. This report is not available for distribution outside Australia and may not be passed on to any third person without the prior written consent of RI Advice Group Pty. RI Advice Group Pty and associated persons (including persons from whom information in this report is sourced) may do business or seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firms or other such persons may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as a single factor in making an investment decision. This report has been prepared in good faith and with reasonable care. Neither RI Advice Group Pty nor any other person makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, reasonableness or completeness of the contents of this document (including any projections, forecasts, estimates, prospects and returns and any omissions from this document). To the maximum extent permitted by law RI Advice Group Pty, its related bodies corporate and their respective officers, employees, representatives and associates disclaim and exclude all liability for any loss or damage (whether foreseeable or not foreseeable) suffered or incurred by any person acting on any information (including any projections, forecasts, estimates, prospects and returns) provided in, or omitted from this report./

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